2024 Interest Rate Predictions – Investor Mortgage Report
2024 is fast approaching! Now is the time to look at 2024 interest rate predictions and discuss the importance of the investor mortgage report. I have been in finance a little over 35 years, and working with real estate investors for 24 years. While experience isn’t exactly a crystal ball, it does help guide your investment decisions, as well as identifying trends. Real estate investors saw a prediction come to life in October of 2023 when rates did improve. As we begin to prepare for 2024, it is important that we follow the trends from Fannie Mae, NAR, and the Mortgage Brokers Association. Let’s take a closer look at trends and what they mean to real estate investors.
What are some things to look for in 2024?
First and foremost we are going to see a more stable market. Let’s start by taking a look at Fannie Mae and focusing on the conventional rates specifically. Conventional includes people who are buying properties, flippers, and those who are refinancing a rental property. Fannie Mae predicts that rates will be between 7% and 7.6%. NAR on the other hand is more optimistic and anticipating rates to fall between 6% and 7%. We have already seen a shift and are hopeful that the rates will continue to follow this pattern!
What about the Fed?
Nowadays the Fed is saying that they think inflation is under control, and in turn they are going to stop raising rates. However, this doesn’t always mean that it reflects 1:1 in the real estate world. In an investor’s world, there are all kinds of loans, which are all affected by different economic conditions. Rates will be better, but they will be volatile. This means that there will be months when rates are up, and months when rates are down. It is dependent on economic information, wars around the world, and the possible impact of 2024 being an election year.
Will rates ever go back down to 5%
In looking back at rates in 2023, we did see them pop up over 8%. However, real estate investors are optimistic that rates will go back down to 5% in the New Year. Many are asking when can we expect the rates to decrease? The decrease will continue to be seen in the conventional rates, which are tied to the 10 year treasury. What is the 10 year treasury? It is a bond issued by the United State Government that guarantees repayment of the money plus interest in 10 years. Even though the Fed dropped their rates and then raised them, the 2024 interest rate prediction is that rates will drop again in May. While they may not go down to 1:1, investors will see a significant decrease.
A closer look at mortgage rate changes.
The government seems to be wanting to spend more and more money, which results in a deficit. In order to create a deficit and pay for it, the government has to issue more bonds. As a result of the government issuing more bonds, investors will want a better rate. This in turn affects mortgages because 3% is added to the 10 year treasury to create the mortgage rate. Just like a stock, these rates are continuing to change. Real estate investors might not see as big of a dip in the 30 year mortgages while the fed funds are dropping. However, we might see a greater impact on the ARMS. Whether it is the 3, 5, or 7 year ARM, we are expecting them to go down in 2024. Just to clarify, ARMS stands for Adjustable Rate Mortgage. As of now, the 5 year ARM and the 30 year fixed both have similar rates with only .25% difference. I think next year will present a bigger spread for adjustable rates over fixed rates.
Let’s dive into some numbers!
|What rates were
|What rated dropped to
|What buyers can afford to buy now
|Cash flow created on rental properties
The lower rate of 6.75% not only increases the amount a buyer can spend on a property, but it can also create cash flow on rental properties. This is great news for flippers, as well as investors. Those who have a $300K loan on a rental property now have a $150 cash flow because of the rate decrease. Every time the rate drops it helps the real estate market. The lower rates create more affordability, and increases the amount people are able to both spend and buy. By combining the high demand for properties and lower rates of 5% or 6%, investors will have the ideal conditions to create cash flow in 2024.
How is the Fed affecting bank loans?
A lot of investors go to banks for rental loans or fix and flip loans. As rates drop, it will have a greater effect on investors because Fed funds affect prime. Fed funds are controlled by the Fed and dictate what banks can borrow from the Fed or other banks. The fed funds are currently at 5.25% to 5.5%. Banks then add 3 points to that in order to create their lending base number for short term loans or 1 to 2 year bridge loans. Some lenders even have a prime -1 or prime -2 for their real estate products, it just depends on the lender. To clarify, prime, also known as the Wall Street Journal Prime Rate, is the most common benchmark that lenders use when setting their interest rates.
What are basis points and how do they affect you?
There are predictions out there that the Fed might drop from 75 basis points, down to 200 basis points in the next year. What is a basis point? A basis point is the same as a percentage point. For example, for every 1% there are 100 basis points. So 50 basis points is equal to .5%. You will hear that a lot in the economic world. Just keep in mind that it’s a percentage of a point. As stated before, rates will be volatile in the upcoming year. It is important that you track the basis points along the way because they will make a big difference when you are trying to sell something. The basis point trends can be found on our weekly mortgage report and are available on our website. It will be updated weekly in order to make sure everyone is informed on current trends.
Keep an eye on DSCR.
Here at The Cash Flow Company we will be keeping a close eye on DSCR, as well as private mortgage loans. We will see how the rates are impacted by upcoming changes, and track the trends in our weekly mortgage reports. Just today we discovered that rates dropped .25 of a point across the DSCR lenders that we work with.Thankfully we are starting to see where rates are going back to the 7% range instead of 8%. This drop is great for investors! Every .25 of a point it drops, means there is more cash flow for you, as well as more opportunities to qualify for properties. The real estate world is going to open up again as rates keep dropping. We are working hard daily to make sure you get the best rates out there.
How will private rates be impacted?
The private money lenders borrow money from either banks or other institutions. A lot of their money is based on either the Fed funds or prime, then they add to that. The amount that they add on is the margin or profit they receive when lending out to someone else. Private rates were in the 7% range and 8% range. Today these percentages have increased to 11% and even 13% for some private lenders. This increase is affected a lot by prime, and prime is affected by the changes that the Fed makes. As rates drop, you should start to see the cost of private money loans on your flips, as well as the BRRRR’s come down as well.
The 2024 interest rate predictions indicate that real estate investors will see a decrease in the upcoming year. This will create more affordability and financing for buyers, as well as an opportunity for investors to sell some of their inventory. As rates go down, it will create wealth, income, and more opportunities. While we don’t have a crystal ball to predict the future, we can utilize trends and experiences to guide us towards success.
Here at The Cash Flow Company we have created a weekly mortgage report to keep you up to date on current changes and trends. Email us at email@example.com to receive the weekly mortgage report updates or look for it on our website at www.thecashflowcompnay.com. This will go over some economic data, the best DSCR rate, and what current rates are for conventional so you don’t run the risk of overpaying. If you are going to be a real estate investor, then you need to know where financing is going. Not only for yourself, but for potential buyers as well. We are here to help!
Many of our customers want to know what the rates would be for their situation, credit, or properties. We can put together a personal report for you. This can then be used for your portfolio, or for when you are buying a property. Contact us today to find out more!
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